The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations

hello my name is carlos pasqual senior vice president at ihs market i’m joined by artelaria senior vice president at ihs market as well and our chief energy strategist and of course by dan dr daniel york alto and i want to welcome you to this book launch for dr daniel jurgen we want to welcome you on behalf of dan on behalf of ihs market on behalf of sierra weed conversations for this presentation of the new map energy climate and the clash of nations dan congratulations for otto and me it’s an absolute honor to be here this is thank you very much dan we’re thrilled and it’s a book log stand but it’s also a celebration and i want to tell our community a bit about what we’re celebrating and dan of course that’s you now i need to make a quick logistical message we’re very happy to take questions today through the q a function that’s on your screen but we also want to give full exposure to dan’s books so we we can’t promise to get all of your questions now but we will respond right so let me come back to dan everybody who is watching knows who dan jurgen is but we rarely stop to think about the collective impact of this man’s career so let’s take a moment to do that and let’s start with praise for the new map the london sunday times calls the new map a wonderful book a capacious and well-written account directed at the transformation of the global map of power and wealth that has happened in the 21st century usa today says jurgen provides a good engaging survey course on the lifeblood of modern civilization where the world has been and where is at a time when solid facts and recent arguments are in retrieve daniel jurgen rides to the rescue and kyrgyz reviews simply says required reading another winner from praise doesn’t begin to capture dan jurgen’s graciousness and humanity as a colleague in fact he is a person who demonstrates in his life and accomplishments relentless commitment to improving the world through understanding through the ability to listen and to then tell us the stories to capture the beauty and drama of the world that is always in transition so dan congratulations i’m a new man thank you very much very gracious of you and let me let me join uh my colleagues here in welcoming everybody to this uh my name is atul arya and i’ll kick off the questioning uh and description we’re gonna have on the book so that i think what we first want to hear is the story behind this story why did you write this book and is it correct that you wrote it long hand well those are those are two different questions uh so i’ll take the second one first yes it’s true i wrote in longhand i’ve always done that and then i but as my handwriting deteriorates i have to type it up pretty quickly i think actually carlos says he went to those other books really in a sense this is a continuation and it builds upon them and it’s built upon the themes but what really got me started was uh looking at just how the logistical maps of energy were changing with the shale revolution united states and what was happening around the world and then that map moved from literal and cartographic really into a metaphor for uh making our way through a world that has been disrupted in many different ways so i think dan just building on that a little bit further a lot of people really ask this question what is the new map and what does it show us in the way that it’s changed and maybe if you could just elaborate on that a little bit further the way it works is the new map what i really mean is this map of energy and geopolitics and the two are so interconnected we’re going to talk about the jail revolution whether you’re talking about china’s map russia’s map the middle east roadmap to the future as i call it of course now so all of those are together and it is it me let me start by going through each of those different maps

and let’s start with the americas map because that’s kind of the beginning of the book uh and of course you know we have to start by talking about real revolution so where do you think we are on the shared revolution is it over what does your crystal ball tell you well i think it’s obviously shale is having a tough time now and uh it was having a difficult time before covet has gotten more difficult uh in the in the new map i said that really shale is going to need a second revolution in terms of its relationship with investors and that has been accentuated by what’s happened uh i think the view we have start growing again so shale will continue to be a very important part of the global market uh will the us get the 13 million barrels but it’s no longer a disruptive technology as it’s been uh for the last for the previous decade it’s now going to be a one of the building blocks from the foundation for the global oil market if i can follow up on that then quickly um you know you also write about the importance of share not just as oil and gas supply but also really changing the geopolitic of energy so how did that how did that happen uh the tool is very interesting because i think people sort of maybe know about the volumes they don’t think about the economic impact it’s had in terms of jobs in terms of manufacturing in terms of over 200 billion dollars of new investment in the united states in new factories and they’re even less aware i think that it’s actually become an important factor in in global affairs because it’s given the united states a new pollution of influence and um and position that it didn’t have before the u.s is a very different position uh when it has the flexibility from its current energy position as being the world’s largest producer of oil and gas um dan let’s take a twist to the international side building on what you just said and you tell a fascinating story about the nine-dash line and the south china sea and it in a sense the the conflicts that are that you retell in history are really at the center of politics again today what is the risk that that nine dash line in the south china sea could become a center of conflict um now and hot conflict right well it’s interesting you know i trace back the nine dash line which is for those who don’t know is there is a map that china uses to demarcate what it says is its territory of the south china sea which is mostly the south china sea and it goes back to the 1930s that map when the french at the dying days of the indo-chinese empire claimed some islands uh in the south china sea and that led to a famous geographer in beijing whose uh photo was in the book uh drawing a map uh to reassert china’s historic claims to it so that map really from 1936 today has become extraordinary influential and at the center of carlos as you say of uh international contention and uh china insists that that’s its territory obviously the united states and the liberal countries don’t necessarily don’t agree with that and there are a few navigation patrols that go through it at the same time that china has uh recovered 3200 acres of reclamation in its both military positions so i think you know if you look around the world i’d say that that’s a point where there have been several near collisions of u.s and chinese ships and it’s a place where an accident could happen so the south china sea is the most important trade body of water into world trade it’s also right now one of the riskiest so then let’s switch gears to another uh part of the book and where we are now uh you coined this phrase sort of before paris and after paris you know paris referring to the climate treaty though the thing i observe is that the emissions which was the focus has continued to go up uh after the paris g days so what do you think changed after that jewel are you saying emissions have gone up or the focus on emissions has gone up but the focus but actual emissions globally have also gone up

right well i think that it tells you of course each year they’re they’re down because of the what i call the economic dark age that came with the shutdown of economies but uh i think what you’re pointing to that tool is in fact to kind of make the transitions people are talking about is going to be more challenging when you have uh what was an 87 trillion dollar economy at some point will actually get back in the course to being a 100 trillion economy but i do think you know you know sometimes when you sit down and you look at a uh these things and you put pieces together it became clear that there was two years in energy now before paris and after paris because as you say emissions have gone up but at the same time terrorists and the of two degrees under half degrees has really become a benchmark not only for governments and for ngos and activists but also for investors and for companies and so that’s what i mean by the you know after paris is clear that we’re in coast guard where it’s remarkable to actually have a consensus 195 nations initially signing on without becoming over the five years since then the standard against which uh much is now being measured dan if i i could build on that and this idea of energy transition and the public engagement and the public policy engagement around it and generally we’ve thought about transition as really more evolution than revolution but now when we look at a world where the union european union is committed to net zero emissions by 2050 we see over 70 countries that have made similar kinds of pledges what are the factors that could accelerate that transition process is that something that’s possible or are the the transformational challenges at stake too great to have an expectation that that process can be accelerated well i think directionally it’s going to happen and the enormous amount of effort will go into it i think that the economic wound of covet will act to some degree as a break i know some people talk about building back better and i think just the burden of debt and the need to deal with actually the wounds of the economy would have a small business for instance um you know energy transition that wasn’t much of the vocabulary a few years ago now has become centered and uh there are different meanings of it when you look at historically you say well transitions take a long time in the book you know the transition with the couple in england figured out how to use coal rather than wood to make improve the process of making iron it took 200 years uh for code to become half the world energy now the 18th 19th even 20th century or not the 21st century where we have these technologies we have visualization all this you know science capabilities real power money talent but it’s still you know the move uh 87 trillion quality still seems to be quite a challenge uh even with all the intention that’s there the world that still uses 84 percent of this energy comes from fossil fuels so you know that’s 30 years you know in terms of in the evolution that you use that purpose is a pretty short one though the direction it’s happening so then let’s stay on the the theme of energy transition for a bit longer and of course a lot of questions on it from our our audience so you know one dimension of energy’s transition is uh it will be building a lot of stuff right you know lots of solar and wind and evs which require batteries and and we’ve seen during the supply chains have been very stressed so how do you see this these supply chains evolving buddha speed another trade conflict looming here i think i think so you know i think that there’s been a separation from looking at the supply chains and from the targets that are being made and we have a fragment called fragmenting globalization that’s now occurring uh some here we want to talk about from china uh obviously increasing stress in that relationship and yet china is deeply embedded in the supply chains

for uh you know the new energies um and it has you know made a big commitment for it so i think there’s much and i think just the scale of it you know tool you know we’re working together on this new supply chain for zero net carbon study and you know we were you know just as you know when we were looking at these numbers last week the scale of what would be required in wind and solar and so forth to meet the kind of targets that are there under a reasonable scenario without building a lot of things i think the supply chains will be a critical question you’re talking about boundaries when you’re talking about uh solar and so i think it does get caught up in this you know the new map of energy you can’t separate them so dan let me just kind of follow up on this again around around the supply chains and you mentioned we are doing this study which will be you know we should look at what is going to what is going to happen you know one of the critical countries in this transition is india and you write in your book you know you have a chapter devoted to india and you say that energy transition will have multiple dimensions in india so could you say about what those dimensions would be yes uh because we’ve worked in india and it’s reflected in that chapter and uh administer pradhan as minister of energy’s very clear about it that yes there’s a big commitment to wind and solar for electricity but there’s also a very big commitment to dealing with uh the health conditions of people in villages hundreds and hundreds of millions of people who burn wood animal waste uh crop waste and have indoor air pollution and the world health organization which of course is now uh front and center says the biggest source of uh this biggest environmental problem today is indoor air pollution for the reasons i’ve said and so india is yes towards renewables but it’s also moving towards a much increased use of natural gas and also getting propane to villages and so forth as a 60 billion dollar program so for india energy transition means also transition from uh pre-modern energy really to commercial energy so it’s a different message and i quote the nigerian energy minister in the book saying the same thing that we have to deal with poverty it’s a different set of issues we need natural gas so that vision of energy transition is not the same vision of energy transition that you might encounter in the netherlands or in germany uh a tool if i can go back to your previous point about supply chains if you know as people know many people in this call know that big oil is a term constant that’s used very much when you look to the next uh iteration of moving towards the lower carbon i think it also becomes an era of big shovels will be a lot of mining yeah so if i can just before we move to another topic on energy transition there’s so many questions and of course you just touched on one with the obvious one the big oil so you know we are seeing a kind of a differentiated strategy of the us versus the european major oil companies tell us where you’re thinking how you think about that is that going to remain and get bigger well i remember i was struck in the zero week conversation did with uh mike worth is the ceo chevron he said that you know never has there been as much differentiation in the strategies of the international oil companies as they are today and one is a conscious that there is an atlantic ocean between europe and uh and north america and uh you see different approaches to it obviously the european many of the european majors now saying that they’re not oil and gas companies their energy companies are going to move in that direction make major changes in their spending and how they direct capital uh the u.s companies different focus certainly a focus on reducing emissions and one of the things we’ve seen is actually the use of renewable energy uh in in the upstream and using uh solar uh for power but i think um you know different companies are adopting different strategies in this uh post-paris era where the where the pressures are different and uh as um i think was the ceo of of michelle in our conversation ben but burnley used the phrase instep with society and there’s a difference in you know society between the united states and europe right now dan if we can connect um this issue of transitions back to the world of politics one of the things that

runs as a common theme throughout your books is that transitions be that also entail changes in power and as we go through this energy transition now what does it tell us about what the energy superpower of the future might look like well carlos let me answer that in two parts one there’s a chapter in the book called the plague and it’s about what’s happened this year i should say basically you know there’s a famous saying you don’t finish a book they take it away from you and they took it away from you in the second week of july and i couldn’t work on it anymore but it’s i think very current and so in that chapter was about the change in the power relations you know for decades it was opec non-opec then it was opec plus i think we saw in april when the oil prices went into negative territory it was a new world of geopolitics in terms of oil because it’s the big three it’s the united states russia and saudi arabia and the choices they make and how they interact in different ways that is really kind of a sort of a foundation of the oil market today and that reflects the change in the u.s position is really brought forward you know by that very severe uh crisis which was a symptom of really an economic symptom of coca-19 but if we look to the future uh you see in terms of power relations you see that china means a couple of things from an energy transition that are important from this position one it reduces its dependence on imported oil and uh china more than anybody else is pushing electric cars mindful of the growth of the automobile street and it is well positioned in terms of new energies in terms of the supply chain for solar uh lithium uh battery supply chain so china uh you know does well out of this countries that export oil um you know demand isn’t going to stop tomorrow demands not going to even stop in 2050 but um you know countries you know you see that focus on diversification in uh in the in the gulf countries in a way they’ve talked about in the past but it’s now become a more urgent thing as we’ve seen with vision 2030 in saudi arabia and uh and uh abu dhabi in the integrated way started diversification 10 years earlier so and russia is still a lot of you know russia is a more diversified economy it’s the world’s largest exporter of wheat but uh 40 50 of government budget comes from oil and gas so you know a country like russia it’s also a question of how does this transition happen uh what’s going to be the role of natural gas in europe uh 10 years from now so those will be big questions for countries that do export a lot of oil and gas and for whom it’s important from there to their overall just another word dan on the on the middle east and you you raise um the saudi vision 2030 abu dhabi um put forward a 20 30 vision even before that and the whole idea was to use oil to transform away from dependence on oil does the pandemic undermine that well i think it makes it more difficult i think carlos you made a very important point which is in order to diverse these countries diversify from oil you need oil revenues to finance it and i think you know the thinking was maybe based on 60 oil not on uh 40 oil or high 30s or low 40s and so covet uh and uh what’s happened to the oil price certainly makes uh diversification transition of those economies just that much more challenging can i ask a question here around since we’re talking hydrocarbons uh there’s a terrific question which which has to be addressed which i think the reader surprise will remember as i do the phrase the hydrocarbon man so then what’s what’s going to happen to the hydrocarbon man and i should i think we should say hydrocarbon men and women now or hydrocarbon person uh um uh you know that’s um that’s a very uh good question and i think um a hydrocarbon person is um is uh how should we say is is is is less than it was you know when i wrote the prize there was it so many things were different i mean china hardly appeared in the book because it was a self-sufficient country right around until that time of publication

um but uh you know i think it’s i think we’ll retire that phrase uh that was a phrase that i think held true but now um uh i think we have to say uh mixed energy mixed person with what we have for the decade do you think they’re kind of in the in the phrase of a very wise man they don’t uh disappear they just fade away well i think uh joe biden in his campaigning uh has you know he gave a speech the other day in western pennsylvania where a lot of people are involved in uh shale and he said you know i’m not going to ban shale uh ban fracking i repeat i’m not going to ban it but then he said somewhere else you know we’ll focus on climate and oil and gas will fade away um it might be a very long fluid out you know just when you look there are two hundred and seven eighty million cars in the united states the average car according to our research failure stays on the road about 12 years so those cars aren’t going to disappear dan there’s a lot of questions that are that are coming in on this question of fuels and the question that keeps coming up is hydrogen and the importance that it could play in the future of the energy system do you want to comment on that yeah that’s um carlos it’s very interesting because some will remember about 10 or 12 years ago maybe even more than that there was a hydrogen boomlet and then it uh it ran out of air uh and then three or four years ago if you said hydrogen people would have said yes what about hydrogen it’s now become a big focus i have one chapter on breakthrough uh energy uh options based and it draws upon a study that we did uh in conjunction with uh uh ernie moniz former energy secretary for bill gates foundation the breakthrough energy coalition uh identifying the technologies and hydrogen you know has really come to the floor i think a lot of um you know a lot of oil and gas companies are looking at hydrogen larger companies seeing that as a part of what will be part of their portfolio in years ahead so i think it’s taken on a seriousness uh you know for for heating and power uh that it you know wouldn’t have been there three or four years ago and i think that reflects uh that reflects uh this post uh paris era that we’re in so it is one of the one of the one of the research on the northern research one of the innovation focal foods for the oil and gas industry and indeed dan um one of the cornerstones of transformation and transition is mobility and you’ve been extraordinarily engaged in that but can you tell us a little bit more about the story of mobility and what’s going to transform it yeah certainly well first i should say that we i just mark it in working in the energy group we’re very fortunate to have uh several hundred colleagues who work in automotive and transportation who do very deep research in that and we you know created this mobility service so when i i kind of structured around uh kind of an obvious title for a section roadmap to the future and what i call the triad the three kind of innovative areas that could change the picture one of course is the electric car uh and i have a chapter you know that deals with you know a lot of topic exchange with the former chief technology officer tesla about what it was like to do it and i think later today elon musk will be speaking uh so it’s electric car the second is ride hailing uh and how that came about and in part uh because somebody was standing in the street corner in san francisco in 2008 and couldn’t get a taxi it was late for a date and had his new iphone in his hand and said wait there must be a way to do that and uber lyft and so forth uh and lyft is interesting because the founder had seen these kind of uh pickups buses in africa and carried it back to the united states uh and of course there’s dd in china where again somebody missed an airplane and then the third are self-driving cars autonomous vehicles and uh maybe self-driving has been pushed back uh the technology somewhat by the crisis and access to capital a ride hailing of course has had a difficult time and you know has to wait for the crisis to be over but if you put them all together then i at least tried to offer kind of a startlingly different

vision uh talked about auto tech and uh kind of big mobility companies that would emerge that would run fleets of electric autonomous robo self-driving electric cars uh you know obviously based on software platforms uh and a very different kind of transportation mode and different kinds of companies and so you know there was an example instead of a big mobility big oil one would talk about big mobility in the future and you know without five years away or ten years away it certainly a possibility how do you think that’s going to impact the oil demand i mean you may have seen you know of course we have our own work in the nhs market but bp last week had three days of investor days and the three scenarios represented uh showed them a decline one of them the next zero very significant drop in oil demand by 2050 which was yeah i think it’s hard to generalize while we’re still in the midst of the pandemic and the degree that it’s uh offended economies uh you know gasoline demand as we look at it as you know we’ve surveyed 15 000 gasoline stations a week and gasoline demand in the us is to take that as a property because i know many of the people watching this are not in the u.s was down 50 in april and it’s down uh about 17 or 18 now and it’s kind of just plateaued there reflecting the fact of where the economy is but you know one big change is where people work you know digitalization six years of digitalization compressed into six months uh will you know will the office of the future be at home i suspect that that’s part of the underlying thoughts of those scenarios that uh the nature of work will be different and there’ll be less commuting the other side of it is that there are more people driving right now with these because there’s kind of a leeriness about using public transportation you know you have rush hour you know traffic in new york city now was jammed and some of the big chinese cities here in rush hour they’re jams so you know there’s kind of a balance between the two of them so we know there’ll be big changes in the nature of work um i think be you know i think the right way to approach this you have to approach the scenarios because we won’t know key factor what is economic growth going to look like when we come out of this is it going to be feeble because of the weaknesses and the wounds in the economy or is it going to be vibrant and i always think that before the end of world war ii great nobel winning economists like policy anderson thought we’d have another depression after world war ii instead you had a real upsurge in the economy and i think that’s what’s going to happen when we come out of this is a similar question and that i think will affect the pattern of oil command one theme dan that cuts across the book is innovation thanks alto and um and it’s fascinating because in some cases it’s based on an individual who came up with the idea of a shipping container in other cases it’s based on somebody’s stubbornness that they just refuse to say no and in other cases it’s based on millions billions of dollars of research and development and as you look at all of those different stories what what do you come away with about drivers of innovation that impresses you as you’ve been studying this theme over the course of years well well i guess it’s it’s maybe a little contradictory on one hand it’s the force of individual willpower and you take uh i think with the shipping you’re referring to the container revolution which really enabled globalization to contain a revolution in shipping and it was one guy malcolm mclean who was trying to figure out how to get his uh car goes more cheaply from the east coast to texas and said well let’s put him on ships uh or of course the classic example is george mitchell who uh you know had a problem he needed to get a contract to supply 10 of chicago’s natural gas and he was his fields were running down and he became obsessed with the fact that fracking would work you know and it took about 15 or 16 years and if he hadn’t dominated his company you know they would have cut the budgets and said this doesn’t make sense let’s call it quits and so you know so that’s the role of individuals at the same time you realize that you know innovation is a complex process that involves ecosystems of of researchers of uh of people who don’t have ideas to carry things to market

uh and you know as you know what the us has is this incredible ecosystem for energy which is a six and a half billion dollars of basic science that the department of energy spends and then and 17 national labs and then you have universities research institutionally companies you have startups a culture so all out of all of that you get a lot of innovation too and i think it’s you know it’s often when kind of things are pulled together i mean frackie was really two technologies uh you know hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that were yoked together and that was not until 2003 that you could kind of prove that that worked so you know there’s not a single recipe for it stand out that people with iron determination can play a very important role at the same time it’s the whole body of technology and the ability to be flexible and to take chances and to just go down avenues and people want to go down that that added up and there’s that question too you know how do you innovate in in larger companies uh you know how do you create the culture that allows that to happen so i think kind of innovation and energy is very much on the table because one of the things that we concluded the study we did with various is that the technologies that people want for you know 2050 are not there yet and that’s going to take new tech additional technologies to get there you mentioned hydrogen another would be carbon capture it’s just hard to see how you do this whole thing without significant uh economic competitive carbon capture and it’s still early days for that then there is a very important technical question about your book which must be answered which is that it seems the audio version of your book is not available outside of the u.s this question is from the uk can you tell our audience how do they get their audio version if they are not only yes well i will uh the way they’ll get it is i will call penguin in london when this call is over and ask them that there is uh people on the line right now who are waiting for the audible version and uh will uh you know and that should be easy because actually it’s two different branches of penguin that are publishing the book one in north america the other in london which has the responsibility for the whole world i think i think that’s a remedial uh problem i uh in the us the book has been best seller in energy in uh amazon uk it’s a bestseller in geopolitics which uh which struck me as uh reflecting the two the two parts of the book yes to that viewer um i will take this as a personal mission thank you before we before we kind of uh you know wrap and all can we talk a bit about investors because again questions around you know in the new map and will the next map be driven by investors and consumers more than by politicians and governments uh you know because of how they are investing and where they’re going to put the money or not with the money for that matter well i think esg environment social governance i think over the last year or two has become a much bigger focus for investors i think there’s pressure on them uh the eu uh has rules that it’s going to pressure investors in that degree you know the market side of ihs market well the whole company i mean we have a focus we created an esg reporting repository and uh are going to continue to do more in that so i think esg is very powerful uh increasingly powerful and is having an impact on company strategies because they’re saying going back to paris how does your strategy comport with uh with uh the paris 2050 goals and so i think that um that’s much on the minds of energy companies how they relate and interact with this kind of rising focus on esg okay thomas uh dan just building on that um if you could take that connection a little bit back even further to to the shale revolution because it gets connected back to the topic of innovation as well um money helps and uh in 2015 we saw wall street pour in 50 billion dollars to support the unconventional sector in the united states and we’ve seen a massive shift in that and esg is one part of that

but what does that tell us about the potential for innovation and change going into the future given these changes that are happening with investment in the energy sector so are you college you think you got into either shale or more broadly um shale is one piece of it but what we’ve also seen is that energy as a portion of the standard poor 500 more broadly has really gone down and resources are going to i.t and pharma and and it starts to ask forces to ask questions what does it mean about investment in energy and innovation and what what impact you could have as we go forward i think that uh if we first look at the shale companies i think they are basically meeting and have to develop a new social contract with investors about return so i think for investors there’s two things it’s returns and it’s esg but i think that that question of where the investor’s going to be in the future availability of capital uh is a question for the industry short term we can see it’s quite striking how much companies have cut back their spending this year uh the major companies have cut back by about 30 from what they were thinking at the beginning of the year uh the big upstream companies in the u.s by about 50 so that raises a question too about what the supplies picture will look like three or four years from now but i think that relationship with investors dividends returns are going to be very important i think that that the esg considerations would be there but i think for investors returns uh will be there too um you know if these companies are cheap now and are able to uh you know be more profitable and so forth then investors will come back to it so i think it’s a but it’s a combination of the two and it is quite dramatic to see energy of like three or four percent of the s p can check 15 or 16 it tells you how the world has changed it also tells you what companies have done really well out of uh in this terrible covet environment and which companies have not and of course with what’s happened with oil prices certainly true of energy companies then uh i have a couple of questions uh you know before we wrap so one is around you touched on biden and you know the campaign how do you see the map of the u.s changing you know posts the presidential election uh well i think a tool one question will be who wins of course uh and when we know that uh i have some concern that uh it’s possible that political institutions in the united states will be tested in a way that they haven’t been tested since the 1930s i mean i hope i’m wrong but you know you can see you know just the uncertainty about voting and everything and uh particularly if it’s a close election um you know i think uh fighting is laid out at this this two trillion dollar climate plan uh which is really meant to you know work in much more into what you’re doing big focus is part of it and you know tells you direction they’ll go uh question i think like all campaigns there are right now many different elements in it you know all vying for the attention all vying for the words that the candidate speaks and will really see afterwards uh after he’s if he’s elected uh how the appointments go what what it is but you know i think that today uh he certainly will push ahead on a strong climate agenda but at the same time i think we recognize the oil and gas industry as a big industry before the um over 12 million people uh in the industry uh and its economic contribution is quite large and i think uh he remember he was chairman of the senate foreign relations committee you’ll recognize the foreign nations aspect of it as well so i think it will be kind of a mixed picture certainly they’ll be more focused on uh regulation than this currently the case and um you know so kind of the correlation of forces will change but i think it will be kind of going down to pass but the big focus is on you know would be the climate agenda and spending money on that

yeah so so uh my my final question here which goes back to where we started because you said that the books you don’t finish the books that are taken away from you now it so happened that you were finishing the book and covet happened and you wrote this last chapter called the disrupted future in which you kind of said that you know what will happen because of kobe 19. so do you think the energy transition and the pace of it and in general broadly the world of energy are we in a very different world now and since you wrote the book or since you sent the book to the publisher to now it’s been a few months how have your thoughts changed on that it’s it’s only actually it’s only two months normally you finish a book nine months before publication this is two months i think penguin was getting a little uh fed up with me or desperate but they just took it away finally you know the the decisive point for a book is that we’ve got to do the index and if you change the pages you can’t do the index so they took it away and then they did a tremendous job in terms of turning it around with everybody actually working at home um you know carlos very graciously mentioned the other books that i’ve done and that’s why you know i really only afterwards that i realized that they all flowed into this and particularly the book carlos you mentioned commanding heights which was about globalization about uh confidence in markets in that shift and the pendulum has shifted back on markets but also um you know in terms of world order um you know we see it happening with you know technology between the us and china we see other examples of it and here are the two most important economies in the world uh that you know are more integrated than people recognize but where the stresses in the relationship are shifting i in the book i talk about a wto consensus going back to the world trade organization breaking down and now the word i probably keywords are sort of strategic competitors uh are there even though they’re connected and my very first book was on the origins of the cold war and didn’t expect to write another book on or you know origins of new cold wars i’m not saying we’re there now but you certainly can see the risk of that happening but it’s much more complicated because the soviet union was not a big factor in the world economy u.s and china are so connected uh and they both are so embedded in the global economy and you know i hear from other countries you guys here too saying we don’t want to have to choose between us and china and getting worried about that and i think for companies too it’s going to be more challenging operating in a world that’s more fragmented where globalization still exists but it’s a more difficult and rocky uh globalization uh in terms of investment and we see it with the tech companies uh we i don’t think we see it yet in energy uh but i think that same kind of risk is there uh so that’s the you know the broad question i think the question that also what fragmentation means is well what does that mean what does protectionism mean for economic growth uh you know what is the breakdown of a global trading system not working as well if it’s lower growth that’s not good news for energy whether you’re talking about our existing energy infrastructure oil and gas and so forth or new energies just if you don’t if you don’t economic growth is a very important i think determinant for supporting uh the whole energy industry where we are today and where people want to go by 2050 and so i think that you have to you can’t separate what’s happening geopolitically right now uh and the kind of sense of competition great power rivalry um there are a lot of risks there and the question i ask people who are involved in these issues well where’s it going and kind of people know where it is now but first going is something that we all really need to focus on and think about so before i hand it over to carlos i should just clarify because now we are having a debate about kindle versus audio so they are you should be very pleased to know that there are lots of kindle fans uh as for that i’m concerned i like the paper anyway over to you over to i would like to say i will say before carlos it would be fascinating for me to do a survey to see how many people buy a book in hardcover like up here on the shelf uh how many read it how many read it on uh listen to it on audiobooks multiple platforms and uh i mean it’s fascinating to see but um uh you know one thing that’s been good for audiobooks is commuting and the

people commuting less i wonder what that does but at least that people have have their keyboards that’s good to know thank you carlos dan i i feel like we could keep going on forever because there are so many issues so many stories and one of the things that’s fascinating about the book is that you tell stories that are meaningful but that you connect them to things that happen broadly and and that have systemic meaning and implication um sometimes i have to laugh when i listen to you because one of your reviewers says you have to read this book for the statistics and so here you prove to yourself again i’d love to know what people think about kindle versus the ibook and you know that drive for understanding based on data and another reviewer says you know there’s some pretty hard-nosed analytics in here that is depressing but sometimes wisdom is depressing and indeed there there’s that aspect as well but at the end you also give us a sense of optimism and possibility and potential so let’s give you the last word dan and say something to us about that aspect of the potential that you see and what drives you to keep keep getting such motivation and excitement from an understanding of the sector and these issues and how they accept how they interact with the world of politics well thank you uh carlos and i think you know it is true that you know i try to be realistic uh in the book but you know by nature i’m an optimistic person and i believe that problems can be solved maybe not overnight but that you know if you understand them and you focus on them and what i really tried to do in this book was you know provide a framework for this changing energy world the changing geopolitical world that’s what the map is uh and at the same time you know kind of point out what does need work what does need focus what can be addressed uh to get to better outcomes and you know i suppose you know i suppose in a way that’s but the book is one of the things that both was really meant to carry forward that there are lots of things that can be done and need to be done that all add up together to lead to better outcomes uh rather than worst outcomes and uh you know i think a time of great change with a lot of things being disrupted from globalization to you know the future of energy local economy pandemic uh we need a computer map new framework nesta tried to uh do in the book and um and uh you know i end on the line that you know there’ll be surprises if you think of all the surprises since 2000 there have been a lot of them but clearly two things that will be constant is climate as an issue for the energy industry for the globe and also unfortunately uh the clash of nations we need to be realistic about it and find ways to manage it so that it doesn’t become something you know worse than it is today so that’s what i’ve tried to do in the book and mix in with it i have to say as you’ve noticed carlos and a lot of good stories that really uh illuminate the world that we’re in today in dan we’ll continue this conversation at sir week right yes uh we will be holding sierra week 2021 uh in the beginning of march and of course in 2021 and the theme of the conference is the new map and uh we’ll look at the map and all the different directions and everything from markets and geopolitics through technology of course climate innovation energy transition well that will be on the table at sear week 2021. so with that i think we are coming to an end so thank you everybody for joining us uh and uh thank you for all the questions look forward to seeing you all uh et cetera 231 as dan said and thank you everybody for joining us today and carlos and that tool uh great conversation and two people i have to say who are very important uh in is i was writing this book and learned a lot from them so thank you to them and thank you to all of you who joined us today